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Entering its final regular season contest against Clemson, Syracuse had sole possession of the Atlantic Coast Conference’s No. 4 seed. But a loss at Littlejohn Coliseum relinquished control of SU’s first potential double-bye in the ACC Tournament since 2014.

SU begins its postseason hopes as the No. 7 seed and will play North Carolina State on Wednesday in Capital One Arena (Washington D.C.). Point guard Judah Mintz and forward Maliq Brown picked up All-ACC Second Team and All-Defensive Team honors, respectively, while backup Quadir Copeland finished second in Sixth Man of the Year voting to Pittsburgh’s Ishmael Leggett.

For Syracuse, a berth at the ACC Championship Game seems the necessary finish for a shot at ending a two-year absence from the NCAA Tournament. If SU defeats NC State in the second round, it will play No. 2 seeded Duke in the quarterfinals. Possible matchups in the semifinal include Virginia and Clemson, who both beat the Orange this season.

Here’s how our beat writers think Syracuse (20-11, 11-9 ACC) will fare in the ACC Tournament:

Cole Bambini (24-7)
Duke, again
Finish: Quarterfinals loss vs. Duke

Syracuse shot itself in the foot in terms of seeding when it lost to Clemson on March 5. In the regular season, the Orange were a combined 4-0 versus its potential first round opponents, NC State and Louisville. So I find they should have no difficulty winning their first game in the nation’s capital.

Should Syracuse win, it will face Duke, a team the Orange lost to by 20 on the road back in January. It’s fair to say that Syracuse has changed for the better since then, but that goes both ways for the Blue Devils.

Sitting as the No. 2 seed, Duke comes off a gritty loss to rival North Carolina, and will carry that defeat with them into the game against Syracuse. The Blue Devils boast the second-highest scoring offense in the country, and can find ways to score down low and on the outside — Duke used eight second-half 3’s to get past Syracuse in the first meeting.

Mark Mitchell and Kyle Filipkowski will be a tough task down low, and Duke’s backcourt versatility with Jared McCain, Tyrese Proctor and company will bury the Orange. I think Syracuse will stick around for a little while in the game, but Duke is too much to handle, solidifying SU’s more likely bid to the NIT.

Henry O’Brien (21-10)
The (Blue) Devil is in the details
Finish: Quarterfinals loss vs. Duke

As Cole said, the NIT is far more likely in Syracuse’s future than the NCAA Tournament. With how underrepresented the ACC is in most bracketologists projectionists, the Orange at the very least would have to run the table to the championship game to earn a bid to the Big Dance. While they won’t have trouble against either NC State or Louisville, the tall task will come against the Blue Devils.

Syracuse’s woes at this tournament have been well-documented, never advancing past the quarterfinals since the program joined the conference. I don’t expect that to change when the Orange face Duke. The issue in that Jan. 2 loss for SU was 3-point shooting and a lack of balance in scoring. Brown and Mintz were the only ones to score over 10 points, while the team shot 25% from beyond the arc.

I don’t expect the 3-point struggles to change against the Blue Devils — unless Chris Bell has another performance like he did against NC State — but I believe more of the depth will show up and record meaningful minutes. The game will be closer than before, but Duke’s talented roster will help it pull away.

Tyler Schiff (24-7)
Against all odds
Finish: Semifinals loss

Syracuse swept its season series with NC State and can win a third straight on Wednesday. But the real challenge begins in the quarterfinals against Duke.

Immediately, recognize the Blue Devils’ star-studded frontcourt of Filipowski and Mitchell — a similar one-two punch to the PJ Hall, Ian Schieffelin pairing which dominated SU’s bigs. Think back to Duke’s 86-66 victory over Syracuse at Cameron Indoor on Jan. 2, however, and you’ll remember Filipowski was blatantly outplayed by Brown. It was Mitchell’s 18 first-half points that made the difference.

So begins another daunting question on whether SU’s undersized Justin Taylor and Bell can contain Mitchell. Duke’s backups won’t be an issue, and Brown should be able to contain Filipowski, a First Team All-ACC honoree, again. If Mitchell struggles and the Orange win the inside battle, chances at an upset are amplified significantly.

Other X-factors for Thursday’s potential showdown include limiting McCain, who rattled off four quick 3’s in the second half for 18 points to see out a commanding result. But if J.J. Starling, McCain’s likely defender, can restrict open looks, then Syracuse looks poised to silence a streaky Duke offense.

There’s Proctor and Jeremy Roach too — both high-caliber players capable of slashing and knocking down open 3’s, but I think Syracuse’s backcourt matches up with them well. It’s March and the Orange were winners in five of their last six to see out the regular season.

It’s another classic tale of an SU side catching steam down the stretch. And its desperation for an at-large tournament bid should amount to an ACC Semifinals loss at the very least.

Published on March 12, 2024 at 8:25 pm